The Scenarios: Where LSU might finish in the SEC

LSU heads into the final week of the regular season in sixth place in the league and in third place in the SEC West.

LSU coach Paul Mainieri's main goal now is finishing in the top four in the SEC. (HILARY SCHEINUK | The Advocate)

LSU coach Paul Mainieri’s main goal now is finishing in the top four in the SEC. (HILARY SCHEINUK | The Advocate)

The Tigers can finish as high as No. 2 and as low as No. 10. On this blog, we break down LSU’s possible finishes in the league.

First, understand where everyone is. We bring you the SEC standings:

  • 1 Florida ………………………….19-8 (.704)
  • 2 Ole Miss ………………………17-10 (.630)
  • 3 South Carolina ………….16-11 (.593)
  • 3 Mississippi State ………16-11 (.593)
  • 3 Vanderbilt …………………..16-11 (.593)
  • 6 LSU …………………………………14-11-1 (.560)
  • 7 Alabama ……………………….14-12 (.538)
  • 8 Arkansas ………………………13-14 (.481)
  • 8 Texas A&M ………………….13-14 (.481)
  • 10 Kentucky ……………………12-15 (.444)
  • 11 Tennessee ………………….11-16 (.407)
  • 12 Georgia ……………………….10-16-1 (.385)
  • 13 Auburn ………………………..10-17 (.370)
  • 14 Missouri ………………………6-21 (.222)

Second, we need to understand what exactly LSU wants. We bring you those realistic goals that coach Paul Mainieri talks all about:

  • Finishing in the top four in the SEC: This is the most important thing right now. If LSU finishes the regular season in the top 4, the Tigers might just being staying at home for an NCAA regional. This goal also comes with another prize – the top four seeds in the SEC avoid the single-elimination portion of the SEC Tournament on the opening day.

* In the last 10 years, the NCAA has given the SEC five regional hosts twice, four regional hosts four times, three regional hosts three times and two hosts once. With an expanded league, there’s a good chance 4-5 will host.

  • Winning the SEC West: This is a toughie. The Tigers need help from some other teams for this to transpire (we get to that below), but if it does, LSU is right back in the hunt for a national seed.

So those are the goals: finish in the top four in the league and win the SEC West. LSU does NOT control its own destiny for either to happen.

Understand this: Florida and either Vanderbilt or South Carolina (they play each other this week) will be in the top four of the league. That leaves two spots open.

The candidates: Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State and Alabama. That’s four teams for two or three spots.

Now, for the scenarios, the possibilities, etc. Keep in mind that LSU must at least win two or sweep Auburn to get into the top four in the standings or win the SEC West.

LSU wins the SEC West (also gets into the top four) IF:

Scenario 1

  • LSU sweeps its series at Auburn
  • Ole Miss loses its series at Texas A&M
  • Alabama wins AT LEAST ONE game in its series vs. Mississippi State

Scenario 2

  • LSU wins its series at Auburn but doesn’t sweep
  • Ole Miss is swept at Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State wins ONLY ONE game in its series at Alabama

LSU doesn’t win SEC West but gets into top four IF:

Scenario 1

  • LSU sweeps its series at Auburn
  • Ole Miss wins its series at Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State loses AT LEAST ONE game at Alabama – OR – South Carolina/Vanderbilt do NOT sweep the other in their series.

Scenario 2

  • LSU wins its series at Auburn but doesn’t sweep
  • Ole Miss wins AT LEAST ONE game its series at Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State wins ONLY ONE game in its series at Alabama